Bitcoin Braces for a $100K Gut-Check, Washington Arms the Dollar, and Saylor Buys the Dip’s Grand-Kids

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Hey Degens,

This week was well, let’s say crazy.

Congress rubber-stamped the GENIUS Act, turning every new stablecoin into a vacuum for Treasuries, just as Bitcoin went down, tagged the CME gap to the dollar, and is teasing to reach $100 K.

Meanwhile, Saylor keeps buying BTC as always, ETH staking lines are getting longer and longer, and hackers reminded us that off-chain servers are Web3’s soft underbelly.

Buckle up.

⚡ TL;DR

• GENIUS Act → Law
  Dollar-backed stables must sit on audited 1-to-1 Treasuries. Uncle Sam just weaponized USDC-on-steroids.

• Hayes’ Gut-Check
  BitMEX founder: “BTC tests $100K, ETH $3K” as macro sputters. He’s sitting on $23M in USDC waiting to move.

• CME Gap Plugged
  Surgical wick to $114,322 filled July futures void; traders eye $104K flush vs. fresh ATH sprint.

• Saylor Goes Bigger
  MicroStrategy—sorry, “Strategy”—ups share sale to $2B; now hoards 600 K+ BTC (≈ 3 % of supply).

• ETH Exit Jam
  Nine-day wait to unstake after leveraged stETH loops detonated. DeFi’s still the Wild West, now with traffic cones.

• July Hacks = $142 M
  CoinDCX ($44 M), GMX (funds returned), WOO X ($14 M). Off-chain infra is the new piñata.

• Telegram-Bot Arms Race
  TrojanOnSolana clocks $25 B lifetime volume; copy-trade millennials celebrate while MEV bots rage-quit.

(Scroll for the full juice, hot-takes, and one action you can actually use today.)

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🚀 MAIN EVENT — The $100K Question

Killer takeaway: A perfect confluence of macro funk and technical gravity is lining up around $100K BTC. That level sits on the 200-day EMA, the 50 % Fib, and a monster bid wall from ETF whales. If it cracks, we pry open the $98–$75 K abyss. If it holds, fresh ammo for a Q4 melt-up.

Mini Hot-Take #1

Why bears have the mic right now

• Jobs miss. NFP printed 73 K vs. 110 K est.—Hayes’ red-flag #1.

• Credit stall. G3 loan growth flatlines, starving risk assets.

• Tariffs 2.0. Trump’s 69-nation surcharge hits in Q3; global trade shivers.

• Open Interest froth. Futures OI still ~$79 B—plenty of fuel for a flush.

Why bulls lurk under the bed

• ETF treasury. BlackRock’s IBIT gobbled 700 K BTC; zero outflows yet.

• Volatility lows. Option IV near 18-month floor—big move brewing.

• MVRV Z-Score 2.4. Historically nowhere near cycle tops (>7).

• Institutional DCA. Standard Chartered still screams $200 K 2025.

Scenario map

Mini Hot-Take #2
“If $100K breaks, Saylor owns the next candle.”

Your Move → Park stink bids at $100 K with iceberg orders; pair with far-dated $150 K calls for Q1 2026.

Washington just armed the dollar with programmable cash, Hayes is betting on a $100 K stress test, and Saylor keeps buying.

DeFi still can’t keep its exit doors clear, and hackers now attack keyboards instead of contracts.

Through the noise, capital keeps sidling deeper into crypto rails.

See you next Friday!

— The DegenDen crew