Short Fuse, Long Game

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Hey Degens,

Busy week. BTC pushed into the weekly close, ETH cleared $4.2K, and US banks are still cutting off some crypto firms.

Vitalik’s wallet is back above a billion on-chain. Bo Hines is leaving the White House Crypto Council. And positioning says a 10% BTC move could torch about $18B in shorts. Let’s dig in.

TL;DR

• BTC: A 10% move up could liquidate about $18B in shorts. Watch the $116.5K CME gap and the $120K breakout line.

• ETH: Holding $4.2K+ with steady ETF inflows. Vitalik’s onchain stack is back above $1B.

• Banks: Debanking is still happening. Several firms report account closures and rising friction.

• Policy: Bo Hines exits the White House Crypto Council. The policy drumbeat continues, but handoffs matter.

THE RUNDOWN

ChokePoint still lingering
Unicoin’s CEO says big US banks are still closing crypto accounts. Access costs are up. On and off ramps remain a risk.

BTC and the $18B squeeze
Roughly 10% higher and shorts get forced to buy. First, price often checks the $116.5K CME gap. Then $120K is the trigger for fresh momentum.

ETH takes a bow
Push to $4.3K, solid ETF net inflows, and Vitalik is an onchain billionaire again. Rotation is alive.

Bo Hines steps down
The executive director of the White House Crypto Council is heading back to the private sector. Expect continuity with a little timing slippage.

Weekend pop, weekday test
BTC set new August highs into the close. When TradFi opens, expect some chop. If dips get bought, $120K is back in play.

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Main Event: BTC’s coiled spring, two paths from here

TLDR: BTC filled prior CME gaps, liquidity is stacked above, and derivatives are still loaded. That is the recipe for a short squeeze. A clean 10% push can force around $18B in liquidations.

Levels that matter

• $116.5K CME gap: Often gets filled. If tagged and quickly reclaimed, that is constructive.

• $117.2K to $118K weekly reclaim: Turns a problem zone into support.

• $120K breakout: Big psychological level. Above here, momentum can snowball.

The fail case
Lose $116K with conviction and we can slide toward $111K to $113K demand. There is also a “danger zone” around $105K where onchain cost bases cluster and leverage tends to get cleaned out.

Why a squeeze is realistic
Weekend liquidations reset risk. BTC often does the gap dance first, then moves. Open interest is still high, so when price runs the wrong way for shorts, it can run fast.

Bottom line
Hold dips near $116.5K and press $120K, and shorts become fuel. Fail that, and $111K to $113K and even $105K are still valid reload areas.

Mini take: squeezes don’t need a big story. They just need imbalance and a push.

Deeper Cuts

1) Debanking risk hasn’t vanished
Despite better policy signals, some banks are still off-boarding crypto accounts or raising fees and friction. Builders should assume fiat rails can break and plan backups.

Mini take: your biggest risk might be your bank.

2) ETH’s quiet strength
Vitalik over $1B onchain again. ETH around $4.2K to $4.3K. ETFs are taking in net flows. If that continues and gas stays reasonable, the BTC then ETH then alts rotation script holds.

3) Policy turnover
Bo Hines stepping aside doesn’t flip the policy stance, but transitions slow things down. Expect the larger moves on stablecoins and market structure to keep advancing.

That’s the wrap. BTC looks ready to squeeze, ETH has the flow, and banks still hold the keys even while DC nods along.

Stay sharp, stay slightly suspicious.
— DegenDen

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