Bitcoin’s $200K Promise vs. Tariff Chaos: Will the Market Actually Believe?

Hey there, DegenDen friends. Grab a chair and brace yourself: Trump’s new tariffs just unleashed some serious wreckage on stocks – but somehow, Bitcoin’s holding its ground.

Meanwhile, big-name analysts like Ryan Rasmussen and Geoff Kendrick haven’t flinched on their “$200K by year’s end” calls.

Think they’re onto something, or just ignoring the swirling market meltdown?

Let’s dive in.

2) THE RUNDOWN

• Tariffs Fuel Recession Fears: Polymarket’s pegging a 54% chance of a 2025 recession, Kalshi says 57%. Yikes.

• Stocks Tank Big: S&P 500 is down 4.84%, Nvidia 7.81%, Apple 9.25%, Amazon 8.98%. Ouch.

• Crypto Stays Chill: Only a 0.37% dip for the entire crypto market in 24 hours. Could we be at the bottom?

• $200K BTC?: Ryan Rasmussen (Bitwise) and Geoff Kendrick (Standard Chartered) say yes, tariffs be damned.

• Miners Sweating: Braiins exec warns US-based BTC miners might get squeezed by import costs and supply chain chaos. It’s about to get real.

THE MAIN EVENT

So, about that sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff bomb Trump dropped. The fallout on traditional markets has been brutal: a wave of inflation jitters and a rush to the exit.

Tech darlings are bleeding out – Apple down ~9%, Amazon ~9% as well. But weirdly enough, crypto only dipped a hair, around 0.37%. Could we finally be seeing some decoupling, or is it just a fluke?

Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise sure thinks it’s meaningful.

He’s doubling down on his $200K Bitcoin price target by the end of 2025, calling the current volatility “dry powder” waiting to explode upward once trade war chaos settles.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick agrees. So yeah, you’ve got two big names ignoring the short-term doom and gloom, bettin’ big on BTC. Bold? Possibly. Naive? We’ll see.

On the mining side, folks like Braiins CMO Kristian Csepcsar are worried new tariffs will hammer US-based miners who rely on foreign ASICs.

The supply chain’s already shaky, and if import costs jump 25%, that’s a direct punch to their margins.

Some in the industry call it the “most brutal environment for miners since 2018.” Enough to kill US mining dominance? Maybe. That might shift the hashrate overseas if the chaos lingers.

And then there’s the bigger question: What if Trump’s new trade stance triggers a recession? Polymarket’s at 54%, Kalshi’s at 57%.

If that turns real, risk assets usually get hammered.

Yet ironically, Bitcoin’s up a smidge from the bottom. Are we witnessing a new safe-haven narrative, or are we just in the eye of the storm?

Rasmussen’s stance? Tariffs are “no biggie” in the grand scheme; we “should’ve been at $150K already,” in his words, if it weren’t for the overshadowing fear.

Once everything calms down, he expects an epic bounce. Maybe that’s hopium, maybe not. But historically, when the market shrugs off bad news, it’s a sign of underlying strength.

Bottom line: If you’re bullish, the mild dip is proof crypto’s got a new backbone.

If you’re bearish, you think we just haven’t seen the real meltdown yet.

As with all things crypto, it’s never black or white. Buckle up, watch the tariffs, and see if Bitcoin keeps defying the doom.

Alright, degens, that’s the highlight reel. Markets are in meltdown mode, but crypto’s playing it (mostly) cool.

Could be a sign the bottom’s in, or maybe we’re just in the calm before the real storm.

Keep an eye on how these tariffs unravel in the next few days—‘cause if a recession hits, we’ll find out just how “safe-haven” Bitcoin truly is.

If you found this chaos entertaining or ironically calming, forward it to your friend who’s screaming at their stock portfolio.

Let’s remind them there’s always a place for degens to hide… or thrive.

Until next time,

– The DegenDen Team

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