Intro

Hey Degens,

Bitcoin did what Bitcoin does best:
Faceplant to $82–80K, drag everyone into despair… then rip back above $90K the second people say “okay, fine, wake me at $60K.

We’re now chilling around $91–92K — up from the lows, but parked directly beneath a wall of resistance and with spot + on-chain volume still in cool-down mode.

Zoom out and November was ugly:

• BTC down ~20% on the month.

• Worst November in seven years.

• Stablecoin market cap actually fell by ~$2B, the biggest drop since the FTX mess.

And yet at the same time:

• 17% of all BTC is now held by companies and governments.

• ETFs alone sit on more than 7% of supply.

• 357+ companies have BTC on treasury.

Price is screaming “risk,” ownership is screaming “this asset class is real now.”

Let’s unpack the short-term map and the bigger shift under the surface.

TL;DR

• BTC bounced from ~$82–80K to the $90.3–92K range, but the real test is the $92–95K resistance band — and especially reclaiming the yearly open at ~$93.3K.

• Swissblock calls the break below that yearly open the “real shift” in trend; they say the bullish case now depends on defending $83–85K and only flips back if BTC recaptures $94–95K.

• Glassnode’s cost-basis heatmap shows ~500K BTC bought around $93–96K (heavy bagholder zone), with another big cluster at $100–108K — expect resistance from recent buyers around both bands.

• On-chain transfer volume is down ~20% week-over-week and spot volume is muted (~$12.8B/day), which means the push above $91K happened without the usual speculative surge.

• November recap: BTC –20%+, stablecoin market cap –$2B, “death cross” on the 50D/200D MAs, but institutional ownership and government + corporate treasuries at all-time highs.

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Main Event
BTC at $92K

Bounce, or Calm Before Another Crash?

Let’s start with the simple picture:

• BTC dumped to $82–80K in November.

• It has since rebounded to the $90–92K zone.

• The short-term trend is technically up from the lows, but price is stalled under a major ceiling.

The levels that actually matter

Right now, price is boxed in between:

• Defensive zone: $83–85K

  • Swissblock calls this the area where “strong demand must appear” for a real bottom to form.

  • Lose it cleanly, and you’re not in “nice little pullback” land anymore.

• Ceiling zone: $92–95K

  • Inside that, the yearly open at ~$93.3K is the line BTC nuked earlier — that’s where the “trend shift” started.

  • Their view: “The trend only flips if BTC reclaims $94–95K.” In other words, relief rally until proven otherwise.

Glassnode’s cost-basis heatmap adds more color:

• Around $93–96K, roughly 500,000 BTC was acquired.

  • This is your classic “I bought the top of the range” crowd.

  • Every tick up into that zone reactivates sellers who just want to get out flat.

• The next big wall is at $100–108K — where recent buyers from the last ATH push sit.

  • When we eventually get there, expect heavy profit-taking and hedging, not clean discovery mode.

So the near-term path is:

• Hold $83–85K + reclaim $94–95K → you’ve got a credible case for a new push at six figures.

• Lose $83–85K → you reopen the lows and invite another down-leg before any real reversal.

The volume problem: we bounced, but did anyone care?

Here’s the catch: the recent move above $91K didn’t come with the sort of volume signature you want to see if this is the reversal.

• On-chain transfer volume (7D MA) is down ~20% over the week, sitting around $87B.

• Daily spot volume is ~ $12.8B, well below the big spikes we saw near cyclical peaks.

• That means this rally is happening with fewer coins changing hands and less speculative heat.

That divergence — higher price, weaker volume — is a big tell:

• Bulls will argue it’s a slow reset before a new leg up.

• Bears will argue it’s just a low-liquidity bounce in a bigger downtrend.

Both can be right… at different timeframes.

The key is this: if spot volume doesn’t start ramping while we attack $92–95K, the odds of a clean breakout drop. Historically, the big pushes to new highs were preceded by:

• Strong spot flows into exchanges.

• Buyer-dominant taker CVD — aggressive buying actually absorbing offers.

• Visible shift from derivative-led games to real demand.

We’re not seeing that yet. Taker CVD is recovering from negative toward neutral, but hasn’t flipped into “buyers steamroll” mode.

So for now, the market is basically saying:

“Yes, we bounced.
No, we don’t fully believe in it yet.”

November Recap: Worst in Years… and the Most “Grown-Up” One Yet

Zoom out from the intraday range and November was objectively rough:

• BTC: –20%+ on the month, from ~$110K to the low $90Ks, with a wick as low as $82.6K.

• First sustained move under $100K since May 2025.

• A classic “death cross” on the daily chart: 50-day SMA crossing below the 200-day.

That alone would usually scream “typical crypto puke month.”

But this one hit differently because of who was in the room:

• Analysts note this downturn happened with heavy institutional participation, policy headlines and macro concern, not just retail leverage blowing up.

• About 17% of BTC’s total supply is now held by companies and governments.

• ETFs alone hold over 7% of supply.

• Around 357 companies have BTC on their balance sheets.

So while:

• Price looked like a classic “oh no, not again” crash,

• Ownership looked like “this is now a macro asset that big players structurally hold.”

That has two consequences:

1. Downturns can be sharper and more reflexive (institutions can de-risk fast).

2. But the floor is also higher and stickier, because you have long-horizon players treating BTC as Treasury-level exposure, not a meme ticker.

Degen Toolbox: “Two Gates” Checklist Before You Ape the Bounce

Before you decide “this is the bottom” or “this is just a dead cat,” run BTC through two gates:

Gate 1: Level Gate

Ask:

• Are we holding $83–85K?

• Have we reclaimed $93.3K (yearly open)?

• Are we closing above $94–95K consistently?

If no → you’re trading inside a relief rally, not a confirmed new leg.
If yes → resistance is weakening and the map opens to $97–98K → $100–108K.

Gate 2: Volume Gate

Ask:

• Is spot volume expanding on green candles?

• Is on-chain transfer volume rising, not falling?

• Is taker CVD shifting from neutral to buyer-dominated?

If levels break but volume stays dead, be suspicious.
If levels break and volume wakes up, that’s when you size conviction, not before.

Write these two gates down somewhere.
Your future self, staring at a $3K candle, will thank you.