Can Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Trigger a Supercycle? 🚀

In partnership with

GM Degens,

We’re in the final days of 2024—a year that’s been nothing short of legendary for crypto. Today, we’re diving into the hottest topic right now: President-elect Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve plans, what they could mean for the market, and why Polymarket bettors are getting cold feet. Plus, we’ll look at whether the elusive “supercycle” is finally here.

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Trump, Bitcoin Reserves, and the Polymarket Shift

Earlier this month, Polymarket bettors gave Trump a 60% chance of declaring a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within his first 100 days. Today? Those odds have plummeted to 27%. What happened?

• Regulatory Reality Check: The Federal Reserve can’t hold Bitcoin without new legislation, and that’s a tall order, even with a pro-crypto majority in Congress.

• Mixed Signals: Trump’s public enthusiasm for Bitcoin hasn’t translated into concrete plans. Yes, he’s teased a BTC reserve—but there’s no executive order on the table just yet.

• State-Level Moves: States like Texas and Pennsylvania are charging ahead with their own Bitcoin reserve proposals, but these are far from finalized.

While Polymarket bettors are pulling back, Kalshi users remain optimistic, betting a 61% chance Trump will approve a Bitcoin reserve—eventually.

What’s at stake?
If the U.S. moves forward with a Bitcoin Reserve Act, it could disrupt the market’s infamous 4-year boom-bust cycle, potentially ushering in the mythical supercycle. But is this time really different? Let’s dig deeper.

Supercycle: Hope or Hopium?

Every bull run, someone shouts, “This time is different!” And every time, a bear market comes knocking. So why is 2024’s chatter around a supercycle gaining traction?

The Case For:

• Institutional Adoption: Spot ETFs have brought billions of dollars into the market. With $128 billion in ETF assets and Bitcoin balances on exchanges hitting record lows, demand is outpacing supply.

• Geopolitical FOMO: If the U.S. or other G20 nations adopt Bitcoin reserves, it could trigger a global race to hoard BTC. Imagine countries competing to “HODL harder”—game theory on steroids.

The Case Against:

• History Repeats: Each cycle has its own bullish narrative. In 2017, it was ICOs. In 2021, corporate treasuries. Both ended in spectacular crashes.

• Market Dynamics: Retail traders remain hyper-reactive. Institutional players might stabilize the market over time, but we’re not there yet.

As always, don’t bet the farm on a supercycle—but don’t count it out either. Hedge wisely.

2025 and Beyond: The Global Domino Effect

If Trump greenlights a Bitcoin Reserve, analysts predict a domino effect: countries like Russia, Thailand, and Germany could jump on the bandwagon. This kind of FOMO-driven adoption could reshape crypto markets:

• Institutional Waves: Expect a new influx of capital from global financial centers. Think less wild volatility, more strategic accumulation.

• Supply Squeeze: With governments buying over-the-counter, Bitcoin’s circulating supply could tighten further, driving prices higher over time.

Game theory is already in motion. The question isn’t if Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset, but when.

Your Take Matters

As DegenDen, we’ve been covering this wild ride since our October launch, and we’ve come a long way—all thanks to you. Now, we want your feedback. Take this quick poll and let us know how we’ve done so far:

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Final Thoughts

2024’s been a rollercoaster, but the ride’s far from over. Whether Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve happens or not, the narrative has shifted: crypto is no longer the Wild West. It’s becoming a cornerstone of the global financial system.

So strap in, Degens. 2025 is gearing up to be even crazier—and we’ll be here for every pump, dump, and rug pull along the way.

Cheers to gains and good vibes,
The DegenDen Team

Meme of the Day

^{Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. DegenDen does not endorse or recommend any specific investment or strategy mentioned. Cryptocurrency investments are highly speculative and volatile, and you should conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any decisions. Always invest only what you can afford to lose. DegenDen is not responsible for any losses incurred from your investment decisions. Stay informed and degen responsibly!}