CPI pops, BTC flops (for now)

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Hey Degens,

CPI came in cooler. Stocks ripped. Bitcoin did the quick spike-to-112K thing and… meh.

We bounced off the 200-day, but unless 112K turns into support, it’s just noise.

TL;DR

• CPI/core CPI a touch under forecast (~3%). Good for risk.

• S&P 500 made new highs.

• BTC: bounce at the 200-day EMA, but sellers showed up at 112K.

• Game plan: reclaim 112K and hold, or expect more chop near 110K.

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🧃 THE RUNDOWN

Soft CPI, hard wall
Headline hit → BTC spikes → sellers camp at 112K. Classic.

Cuts likely
Odds for a 25 bps Fed cut this month jumped. Tailwind’s real. Price still has to cooperate.

Where we actually bounced
The 200-day EMA. Nice save, not a trend change by itself.

Two lines that matter
112K (break and hold) and ~110K (first decent bids). Everything else is chatter.

Main Event — Macro says “go,” BTC says “prove it”

CPI printed light across the board and stocks went vertical.

Bitcoin popped to 112K, but the open brought sellers and we cooled off.

Why the lag?

• Positioning: Plenty of supply lurking above; bids start showing closer to 110K.

• Structure: We need a clean daily close back above the 21/55-day EMAs. Until then, it’s a range with extra drama.

Yes, expected rate cuts into year-end help.

But BTC needs the chart to line up.

Flip 112K, hold it, then we can talk momentum again.

Deeper Cuts

• Policy path: Softer CPI during a shutdown window boosted cut odds for Oct 29. Liquidity backdrop gets friendlier if that sticks.

• Level map:

  • Support: ~110K (laddered bids), then recent range lows if that gives.

  • Resistance: 112K first, then those 21/55-day EMAs right above price.

• What would convince me: A daily close >112K, light pullback, buyers defend the retest. Volume improves. Simple.

Mini Hot Takes

• If 112K keeps rejecting, it’s a fade-the-pop market.

• The first break is the trap. The retest is the truth.Ugly day, clean levels. If banks settle down and BTC reclaims 110–112K, expect a relief rip. If not, $101–100K is where the market will try to write a higher-low story.

Macro finally gave us a green light. Now BTC has to walk through the door. Flip 112K and hold, and we run. Fail there again, and it’s more range and eye rolls.

See you on Friday

— The DegenDen Team

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