Fed cut, BTC dipped. Why?

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Hey Degens,

Markets did the classic “good news, bad candle.” The Fed cut 25 bps and even called time on QT starting Dec 1… and BTC still dropped to ~$109K.

Why? Because the cut was priced in, and everyone’s gaming what comes after: jobs softness, sticky-ish inflation, tariffs, and whether this post-FOMC dip sets up the usual bid-soaked rebound.

Today’s issue: what the tape’s saying now, what could flip it, and why Saylor still has $150K on his 2025 bingo card.

Strap in.

TL;DR

• The Fed cut 0.25% and will end QT on Dec 1… and Bitcoin still dumped to ~$109.2K.

• Near-term tape cares more about jobs, inflation, tariffs, and “what’s after the cut” than the cut itself.

• Playbook we’ve seen before: post-FOMC dip → potential upside if order books flip bid-heavy.

• Saylor’s base case: $150K BTC by end of 2025, leaning on the U.S. policy pivot (tokenized securities + stablecoins) and steady ETF/treasury demand.

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Main Event — The “good news, bad candle” day

The Fed delivered the expected 25 bps cut and confirmed QT ends Dec 1.

That’s liquidity-friendly over quarters, not hours.

The market already priced the cut, so traders immediately looked past it to the macro backdrop: softening jobs, inflation still a conversation, and the tariff overhang.

Result: BTC slid to ~$109.2K from Monday’s pop to ~$116.4K. It feels counterintuitive, but it’s classic “buy the rumor, sell the meeting.”

Hyblock’s note sums it up: FOMC days often bring a down move first, then up once bullish confluence shows up (e.g., bid-heavy books).

Dot plot vibe: Three cuts penciled in for 2025. Goldman even sees more in 2026 (landing policy around 3.0–3.25%). That’s a tailwind over time, not an insta-moon.

Levels & set-ups (keep it simple)

• Spot: ~$109K is the line we just tested. If it’s lost on closes, the path of least resistance is lower before buyers try again.

• What flips momentum: Evidence of bid support building after the FOMC fade. If that shows up, the “dip then rip” play can still play out.

How I’d approach it (not advice):
No hero longs mid-flush. Let price reclaim levels on decent volume, then retest and hold. If books turn bid-heavy and the retest sticks, size accordingly. If not, dodge the knife.

Big Call — Saylor’s $150K by year-end 2025

Saylor calls the last 12 months the best in the industry’s history and plants a flag at $150K by end-2025. His logic:

• Regulatory pivot in the U.S.: SEC giving tokenized securities a path; Treasury backing stablecoins to defend dollar dominance.

• Structural demand: ETFs and corporate treasuries soaking more supply than miners create.

Macro was noisy (tariffs sparked a crash), but diplomacy is thawing: U.S.–China rhetoric relaxed, a “substantial” framework reportedly in place, and a Trump–Xi meeting teed up at APEC.

If trade headlines stay constructive and the Fed keeps easing, risk assets can catch a bid fast. As Pomp put it: if both hit, “buckle up.”

Quick FAQ energy

Why down on a cut?
Because the cut was 100% expected. The tape trades what’s new: jobs, inflation stickiness, tariffs, and “what’s next after this cut.” Ending QT is bullish over time, but it doesn’t arm-wrestle a crowded book in the next 4 hours.

So… bullish or bearish?
Tactically: neutral-to-cautious until we see a reclaim + retest. Structurally (multi-quarter): easing path + policy clarity + treasury/ETF demand is bullish. Two different clocks.

The cut wasn’t the catalyst; it was the starting gun for the next macro leg.

If the market likes what comes next (jobs, inflation trend, trade detente), Saylor’s $150K call by end-’25 stays very live.

For today? Respect the tape, trade the confirmations.

See you on Friday

— The DegenDen Team

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