- DegenDen
- Posts
- Forced Buyers, Open Rails, and a Quiet Setup Into Year-End
Forced Buyers, Open Rails, and a Quiet Setup Into Year-End
ETF and corporate demand is eating miner supply while regulators tee up friendlier rails. Vitalik wants the core infra open and verifiable.
In partnership with
Hey Degens,
Quiet tape on price, loud moves under the hood.
Saylor says demand is already bigger than supply, the CFTC wants stables as collateral, the SEC is talking a fast-track lane for new products, and Vitalik is basically saying “if it matters, make it open and verifiable.” Feels like the plumbing is getting built while everyone watches 15-minute candles.
TL;DR
ETF and treasury buying is larger than miner issuance right now. Saylor thinks that sets up a grind higher into year end.
CFTC’s Caroline Pham kicked off an effort to allow tokenized assets, including stablecoins, as cleared derivatives collateral.
SEC chair Paul Atkins floated an “innovation exemption” to speed digital-asset product approvals, with generic listing standards already helping multi-asset ETPs.
Vitalik wants open-source, auditable infra in health, finance, governance to avoid opaque choke points.
THE RUNDOWN
Saylor’s Supply Math
On average miners push ~900 BTC per day. River pegs businesses at ~1,755 BTC per day and ETFs ~1,430 per day in 2025. Net: demand > supply. Saylor expects BTC to “move up smartly” toward year end if macro headwinds ease.
Stables As Collateral
CFTC acting chair Caroline Pham launched an initiative so tokenized assets, including stablecoins, can be treated like cash or Treasurys for derivatives collateral. Goal: lower costs, reduce risk, unlock liquidity. Feedback open until Oct 20.
SEC Fast Lane Talk
SEC chair Paul Atkins says they’re working on an “innovation exemption” by year end to speed up digital-asset products while tailored rules catch up. Generic listing standards already helped a multi-asset crypto ETP go live.
Vitalik’s Openness Push
Vitalik argues critical systems need open, verifiable infra. Closed stacks breed monopolies, surveillance, and mistrust. Points to open efforts like PopVax as examples of how to reduce cost and skepticism.
Price Check
BTC has chopped in the ~111,369 to ~117,851 band over the week, and around ~111,658 to ~113,301 in the last day. One of the year’s bigger flushes just ran through the market, but that looked technical, not fundamental.
Join 400,000+ executives and professionals who trust The AI Report for daily, practical AI updates.
Built for business—not engineers—this newsletter delivers expert prompts, real-world use cases, and decision-ready insights.
No hype. No jargon. Just results.
Main Event: The Quiet Squeeze That Doesn’t Look Like One
Here’s the simple version. Issuance is roughly 900 BTC a day. River’s work shows businesses are buying around 1,755 a day this year and ETFs another 1,430.
That’s a daily shortfall covered by sellers or inventory, and it creates constant buy-side pressure even when the chart looks sleepy.
Saylor’s take: once the recent macro resistance bleeds out, that demand imbalance should pull price higher into year end.
You don’t need fireworks if the vacuum pump is on every day.
Two caveats worth keeping in mind:
Macro still matters. Cuts help risk assets, but any wobble in growth or a surprise inflation print can slow flows.
Supply overhangs rotate. When old holders stop selling into strength, the squeeze shows up fast. When they do sell, it just delays the same math.
If you’re wondering why the tape feels boring while headlines look bullish, this is why. It’s not a mania bid. It’s a steady one.
Deeper Cuts
CFTC Collateral Move
Treating stablecoins like cash or bills at clearinghouses is a big plumbing shift. It means fewer forced FX hops, simpler margin ops, and better capital efficiency for firms that already net collateral daily. Circle’s Heath Tarbert called it a path to lower costs and unlocked liquidity. If this sticks, on-chain dollars get real utility beyond payments and CeFi on-ramps.
SEC’s “Innovation Exemption”
Temporary relief so teams can launch under lighter supervision while the rulebook modernizes. We’ve already seen generic listing standards compress timelines, which is how that multi-asset ETP shipped. The signal here is consistency. Fewer one-off exemptions, more predictable frameworks.
Vitalik’s Open-Infra Pitch
Closed systems in health, finance, governance concentrate power and create trust gaps. Open standards and verifiability give people a way to audit claims. In crypto terms: don’t build critical rails behind APIs that can be revoked at whim. Build them so anyone can check the math.
Partner Corner: Start and monetize your own newsletter on beehiiv
Quick behind-the-scenes: I run DegenDen on beehiiv. It has the good stuff baked in – fast landing pages, solid analytics, helpful AI writing tools, and a built-in ad network so your newsletter can actually earn money.
I’ve partnered with the beehiiv team to hook you up with:
20% off your first 3 months
A free 30-day trial, no credit card needed
Thinking of starting a newsletter or switching platforms? Maybe start a side hustle that can actually make money? Use my beehiiv link and tap into their ad network to start earning.
Mini Hot Takes
Stablecoins in the margin stack are the boring killer app.
Collateral moves markets. If stables sit beside cash and bills, volumes follow.
ETF math beats vibes.
Issuance is capped, flows are not. If net flows stay positive, price eventually notices.
Open beats closed long term.
Vitalik’s right. If it runs society, it should be inspectable. Black boxes break trust.
— The DegenDen Team
Meme of the Day
Reply