Intro

Hey Degens,

You know it’s a weird market when:

• BTC is glued to $90K,

• Traders on X are literally calling it a “no-trade zone,” and

• The US Supreme Court is suddenly a crypto volatility event.

That’s where we are today.

Bitcoin is drifting between $88K and $92K while everyone waits for a ruling on Trump’s trade tariffs, which prediction markets give roughly a 3-in-4 chance of being ruled illegal.

At the same time, under the hood:

• Weekly RSI broke out of a 3-month downtrend in December and is still holding.

• A two-week RSI just flipped bullish from levels lower than the 2022 bear market lows.

• And on lower timeframes, BTC is printing hidden bullish divergence while price tries to cement $90K as support.

So on the surface, it’s flat and boring.
Underneath, it looks like a compressed spring.

Let’s unpack what actually matters here.

TL;DR

• Macro catalyst: Markets are waiting for a US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. Prediction markets put the odds of the tariffs being ruled illegal at ~74%. Traders expect the decision to be a risk-asset volatility trigger, crypto included.

• Price action: BTC is stuck around $90K, with traders calling it a no-trade range between roughly $88K (CME gap / support) and $92K (local resistance). Most are refusing to chase a 5% move either way until something breaks.

• Fed backdrop: US unemployment data came in weaker than expected, but the Fed is still seen holding rates at its late-January meeting. That keeps macro in “watch, don’t panic” mode for now.

• RSI signals:

  • Weekly RSI broke out in December and stays above its downtrend line, mirroring a breakout last year that preceded months of upside from ~$75K.

  • Two-week RSI just flipped bullish from levels deeper than the 2022 bear lows.

  • Lower-timeframe RSI (4h) shows a hidden bullish divergence: price holds higher lows while RSI prints lower lows.

• Upside target: One trader (BitBull) is openly targeting $103K–$105K within 3–4 weeks if the RSI setup plays out.

• Downside risk: Other traders still think we revisit the April lows near $75K, especially if $88K and the 21-day MA give way and the tariff decision spooks risk assets instead of helping them.

• Big picture: This is less about “up or down tomorrow” and more about:

  • How BTC resolves this two-month volatility compression, and

  • Whether RSI + macro team up for a run toward six figures…
    …or we first have to survive one more flush toward the mid-70Ks.

None of this is a trade recommendation. It’s the map of the battlefield.

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Main Event
1. Macro: When the Supreme Court Becomes a Crypto Catalyst

This week’s weird headline is simple:

Bitcoin traders are waiting on a Supreme Court ruling.

The case: Trump’s trade tariffs.
The setup:

• A decision is expected as soon as today.

• Prediction markets (Polymarket) put ~74% odds on the tariffs being ruled illegal, according to The Kobeissi Letter.

• That could reshape US trade policy and ripple into equities, FX, commodities — and by extension, crypto.

At the same time:

• US unemployment data missed expectations (weaker labor), but

• Fed expectations haven’t changed much: markets still see no rate cut at the January meeting — basically a pause in the cutting cycle, not a hawkish pivot.

So macro today looks like this:

• Tariff ruling: binary-ish event → potential volatility jolt

• Fed: mostly priced, leaning supportive but not euphoric

• Equities: still near highs; risk appetite is cautious, not dead

That’s why BTC is doing what it often does before big macro news:
nothing, very loudly.

2. The 90K “No-Trade Zone”

On the chart, BTC is basically camping.

• Price is hovering near $90K.

• Range is roughly $88K–$92K:

  • Around $88K, you’ve got support + a CME futures gap from early January that traders expect to fill.

  • Around $92K, you’ve got local resistance and a cluster of liquidity where short-term traders have been fading rallies.

Some voices from the desk:

• Daan Crypto Trades: “Still ranging as has been the case for the past ~2 months. I am not interested in trying to trade the next 5% move on this at all.”

• Deadline (on X): “$BTC is currently in a no trading zone… either reclaim $92K to prove bulls are back or drop to $88K to fill the CME gap. Patience is the only play.”

• Michaël van de Poppe: Highlighting the 21-day moving average as key; losing it risks a deeper cascade, holding it keeps the bull case alive.

Translation:

• This is not where pros are aping 10x leverage.

• This is where they’re:

  • Letting funding cool

  • Letting liquidity stack at the edges of the range

  • Waiting for a decisive break (tariffs might be the excuse)

You don’t get paid for predicting the next $3K scalp here.
You get paid for catching the $15K–$20K expansion after this range finally snaps.

3. RSI: The Quiet Bull Case

While price is crab-walking, RSI is doing something more interesting.

3.1 Weekly RSI: breakout holds

On the weekly chart:

• RSI spent about three months grinding down in a corrective downtrend.

• In December, that downtrend broke to the upside, and RSI has stayed above the breakout line since.

BitBull’s read:

• The last time we had a similar weekly RSI breakout (after April’s ~$75K local lows), BTC went on to post months of upside.

• If history rhymes, he’s calling for $103K–$105K within 3–4 weeks.

That’s the textbook bull case:

Range + “boring chop” ≈ mid-cycle reset → RSI flips → breakout to fresh highs.

3.2 Two-week RSI: deeper than the 2022 bear lows

Zooming out further:

• On the two-week chart, RSI is now sitting at levels lower than during the 2022 bear market bottom — and it has just flipped bullish.

James Easton’s take:

Two-week RSI this washed-out + flipping up has historically marked major cyclical resets for BTC, not just little dead-cat bounces.

Combine that with:

• Velocity RSI (a variant that tracks the speed of BTC’s moves) hitting single-digit “bear bottom” territory around $87K, something we’ve only really seen near cycle lows.

That’s a lot of bottom-ish energy for price that’s “only” 30% off the ATH.

3.3 Lower timeframes: hidden bullish divergence

On the 4-hour chart:

• Price has been making higher lows around the $88K–$90K area.

• RSI printed lower lows in the same window.

That’s hidden bullish divergence, which usually suggests:

• Sellers are losing momentum,

• Underlying demand is quietly absorbing supply, and

• You’re closer to expansion than “fresh meltdown.”

None of this guarantees we go straight up.
But when multi-timeframe RSI lights up like this while price is flat, the message is:

“Volatility is coming. You probably don’t want to be over-short when it arrives.”

4. The Bear Counter-Case: One More Flush

Of course, not everyone is strapping in for $105K just yet.

Several traders are still:

• Expecting one more leg down to test the April lows near $75K,

• Watching ETF flows (recent weeks saw net outflows again), and

• Pointing at macro: if the tariff ruling or later Fed comms spook risk assets, BTC can’t stay immune forever.

Bearish roadmap in their minds:

1. Supreme Court ruling or some other macro headline → risk-off

2. BTC loses $88K, fills CME gap, slices through the 21-day MA

3. Panic wick: mid-80Ks → high-70Ks → possibly retest $75K

4. That finally flushes leverage and gives the “all clear” for the next trend leg

That path doesn’t necessarily break the long-term structure:

• Multi-timeframe RSI can stay bullish even with one more flush,

• Velocity RSI is already in “bottom zone,” which often includes a messy, scary last leg before the real recovery.

So the real tension here isn’t “bull vs bear.”
It’s “V-bottom vs one more nuke” before the uptrend resumes.

Degen Toolbox: How to Navigate a Coiled Spring

Again, not financial advice, but here’s a framework to think in.

6.1 Respect the range

• Treat $88K–$92K as the current sandbox.

• Think in levels, not feelings:

  • Above $92K–$94K with volume? → that’s where the bull case actually starts to prove itself.

  • Below $88K and especially if 21-day MA breaks? → prepare for the “one more flush” variant.

If you’re trading:

• Size for volatility expansion — assume when this breaks, it moves $10K+ from here, not $2K.

• Decide in advance:

  • “Where am I wrong?”

  • “What level invalidates my idea?”

6.2 Let RSI guide bias, not entries

• Multi-timeframe RSI (weekly, 2-week, even velocity RSI) supports the idea that we are closer to a cycle low than a cycle top right now.

• That doesn’t mean “ape long now” — it means:

  • Be suspicious of new shorts opened at 90K chop.

  • If you must short, treat it as tactical, not structural.

RSI is a context tool, not a trading system on its own.

6.3 For longer-term BTC holders

If your time horizon is multi-years, not days:

• The Supreme Court ruling, the next FOMC, and the $88K vs $92K mini-battle probably don’t change your thesis.

• The only real questions are:

  • “Does the structure still look like a mid-cycle reset?”

  • “Are we still seeing strong long-term metrics (supply leaving exchanges, ETF holdings, HODL waves, etc.)?”

Right now, the answer to both is still “yes, with volatility.”