Intro

Hey Degens, so… that cute green candle we got yesterday?

Yeah. The market woke up today, saw BTC trading back under $90K, and basically said: “lol, never mind.”

Bitcoin is now almost 30% off its early October high around $126K. Some analysts are saying this correction ranks among the nastiest 40-ish day drawdowns since 2017.

ETFs are bleeding, sentiment is stuck on “Extreme Fear,” and your favorite altcoins are quietly revisiting support levels you haven’t looked at in months.

Let’s unpack what actually matters here, beyond the scary numbers.

TL;DR

• BTC slipped back below $90K, roughly –4% on the day, with ETH down –6% under $3K.

• This drawdown (~–30% in 43 days) is now in the “one of the worst since 2017” club, according to K33 Research.

• Spot BTC ETFs have seen ~$2.3B of outflows over the last 5 sessions, and that’s fueling the move down.

• Key BTC zones everyone is watching: $89K → $87.8K → $84–86K; deeper pain might poke $74K if things really unwind.

• Altcoins (SOL, BNB, ADA, DOGE, etc.) are drifting toward big supports, and most charts still say “bears in control for now.”

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Main Event
BTC’s “One of the Worst Since 2017” Dump. What It Really Means

Let’s start with the headline facts:

• BTC printed a local top around $126K in early October.

• As of today, price has slipped back under $90K, roughly a –30% drawdown over 43 days.

• Research desks are now flagging this as one of the steepest corrections we’ve seen since 2017.

• At the same time, spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. have seen about $2.3B in outflows over the last five trading days.

• Sentiment gauges like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index are pinned on “Extreme Fear.”

Translation: structurally bullish long-term story, horrendous short-term vibes.

Everyone is staring at the same levels

Here’s where it gets interesting.

K33’s head of research points out that BTC has already swept below the average cost basis of U.S. BTC ETFs. If this correction behaves like the two deepest ones from the last couple of years, there’s a strong case for a local bottom forming somewhere in the $84K–$86K range.

If that zone doesn’t hold? The next “obvious” magnet is a revisit of the April low around $74K, which also happens to be roughly where MicroStrategy’s average entry sits.

So we have a market where:

• Short-term traders are traumatised.

• ETF holders are underwater and de-risking.

• Everyone from CT to research desks is circling $84–86K on the chart like it’s the promised land.

When everyone agrees on the same level, two things usually happen:

1. We actually tag it — brutal wick into the box, max pain, then mean reversion.

2. We front-run or overshoot it — either front-run the level (bottoms higher), or devastate everyone and nuke through it into the next major liquidity pocket.

Is this a “new bear market,” or just a vicious reset?

You’ve got a split screen of opinions right now:

• Mark Yusko (Morgan Creek) is calling this a bear market, but expects it to be milder than previous full-blown crypto winters. His view: institutional adoption, reduced leverage, macro debasement and the “BTC is macro collateral” narrative soften the blow long-term.

• Tom Lee and Tom Demark are more short-term constructive, saying the downside is getting exhausted and a bottom could form “sometime this week.”

So which is it?

Honestly, it doesn’t matter what label you slap on it. What matters is how the market reacts around these key zones:

• Below $90K and under $89,253: bears are still in the driver’s seat.

• $87.8K → $84–86K: this is the “candidate bottom” zone if we mirror past deep corrections. Expect violence here — liquidations, fake breakdowns, wicks.

• $74K area: this is where “mild bear” starts to feel like “oh no, not again” if we get there.

The $100K line in the sand

On the upside, the psychological $100K level has now turned into a massive “prove it” zone.

Any relief rally that pushes back into six figures is likely to be:

• Sold aggressively at first (trapped longs, bagholders, ETF sellers).

• Only convincing if BTC can break, retest and actually hold above $100K.

If we do reclaim and hold $100K with strong volume, then the map opens up toward the $108K → $112K region again. Until then, any rally into that area is just a bouncy dead cat looking for new shorts.

What do you do with this?

A few practical frames, not financial advice:

• If you’re leveraged and sweating, the market already has you where it wants you. Forced decisions are usually bad ones. Zoom out and resize risk proactively before we hit obvious pain zones like $84–86K, not during.

• If you’re spot-heavy and long-term, this is where you want a plan written down before price gets dramatic. “I buy X at Y levels” beats refreshing CT waiting for permission.

• If you’re purely trading levels, this is heaven: clear downside magnets, obvious invalidations, and max emotional overreaction.

The real edge over the next couple of weeks isn’t guessing the exact bottom.

It’s staying solvent, calm and liquid enough that when the bottom does show up, whether it’s $86K or $74K — you’re not wiped, angry, and on the sidelines watching the next narrative run without you.

Degen Toolbox: One Thing to Actually Watch

Today’s “tool” is more of a habit:

Track ETF flows + Fear & Greed, not just price.

Over the last week, an ugly chunk of the downside has been explained directly by:

drumroll…

• Persistent spot BTC ETF outflows, and

• Sentiment staying jammed in Extreme Fear.

Whatever tools you use, Farside for flows, your favorite sentiment dashboard, or just a simple watchlist, make a small daily ritual:

• “What is price doing?” vs

• “What are flows doing?” vs

• “What is sentiment doing?”

When those three line up, you don’t need a magic model. You just need to stop fighting the tape.