Options Monster Week

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Hey Degens,

One thing that matters right now: Friday’s $22B BTC options expiry.

If bulls can yank price back over 110k by the 08:00 UTC print, a lot of puts lose their bite.

If they can’t, puts keep a roughly $1B edge and 100–101k becomes a live magnet. Order books say the real fight is at 108.2k bids vs. short liq above 110k.

TL;DR

• BTC tagged a 3-week low under 109k after a big long flush and sits in front of a $22B options expiry on Friday.

• Below 110k at settlement, puts lead by about $1B. Above 110k, pressure eases and we can bounce.

• PCE printed 2.7% (as expected). Markets still price cuts this year. Crypto shrugged.

• ETFs posted +$241M net inflows. Futures basis ~5% (neutral), OI still heavy at ~$79B.

• Binance bids clustered ~108.2k. Short liq pools stack from 110k up.

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🧃 THE RUNDOWN

Options Overhang
Friday’s monthly expiry is massive at ~$22B. Line in the sand is 110k. Settle below and puts stay in control. Settle above and we squeeze.

Leverage Got Smacked
Fresh wave of long liquidations under 111k. That deleverage resets some risk, but dip buyers still need a reclaim.

Order Book Chess
On Binance, bids sit around 108.2k while short liquidations lurk from 110k and up. Whoever wins that pocket calls the next 2–3k.

ETFs Still Eating
Spot BTC ETFs hauled in about $241M on Wednesday. Not face-melting, but it’s steady bid while traders argue direction.

Macro Was a Non-Event
PCE came in at 2.7%. No surprise. The cut narrative survives. BTC barely blinked and kept trading the book.

Risk Off Side-Quest
Shutdown chatter out of DC adds background nerves. Stablecoin CNY premium sits near +0.3%, which reads neutral.

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Main Event — The $22B Expiry That Can Flip The Tape

The setup is simple.

Bears targeted the 95–110k zone for Friday’s monthly options.

If BTC is still sub-110k at 08:00 UTC, put holders keep a ~$1B advantage.

That explains why the book keeps leaning on rallies into 110–112k.

What flips it:

• Reclaim 110–112k before or right after settlement, tap the short-liq ladders, and you can see a sharp relief leg.

• Futures basis holds ~5% and OI only bled a touch. That says positioning cooled but didn’t nuke. There’s fuel if price pokes the right levels.

• ETFs are still net buyers. That bid isn’t tactical scalps; it’s sticky flow.

What breaks it:

• Lose 109k with force and fail to bounce off the 108.2k bid wall. Then the market will aim at the 101k–100k pocket everyone keeps eyeing for spot bids and max pain cleanup.

Deeper Cuts

Dealer Flow: With puts in the lead below 110k, dealers likely short spot/long vol into expiry. A settle above 110k forces chasing and can accelerate a pop.

Derivs Health: Two-month futures premium ~5% = neutral. That means no manic FOMO and no panic short pile-on. OI near $79B is still chunky, so moves can travel once one side taps out.

Sentiment Split: Binance top traders cut longs into the drop then quietly added. OKX whales added earlier and got tagged on the 108–109 sweep, then de-risked. Translation: conviction is low, reaction is high.

Macro Noise: PCE at 2.7% doesn’t change the cut path. Markets still expect relief this year. Crypto is trading microstructure more than headlines this week.

Mini Hot Takes

• If 108.2k holds and 110k flips, the move can run faster than you think. Shorts are crowded above.

• If we print an expiry under 110k and can’t reclaim it on the first retest, 100–101k is the path of least resistance.

• ETF inflows didn’t save intraday price, but they reduce tail risk. That matters on the second bounce, not the first wick.

• This isn’t “fear,” it’s a positioning cleanse into a calendar event. Big difference.

Breathe. The event is the event. Let it clear, trade the level that wins.

— The DegenDen Team

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