Intro

Hey Degens, this week we’re cutting through the noise and focusing on what actually is happening in crypto.

Hype is out; liquidation math is in. BTC keeps tapping the same floor, and the book looks like a magnet around $98K.

Let’s dive in.

TL;DR

• A $98K sweep is on-brand with current liquidation stacks and repeated tests of $100–102K.

• Watch for a forced flush → quick reclaim → hold (H4/D1) to validate a bounce.

• If bulls reclaim $108K (then $112K) with a retest that sticks, momentum flips.

• Thin-volume breakouts + spicy funding + rising OI into resistance = trap risk. Wait for retests.

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Main Event
BTC → $98K? The map says it’s on the table

BTC lost its momentum at $100.7K and we’ve been drifting—about –3.5% on the week, with every bounce feeling half-hearted.

Under the hood, long-term holders have unloaded roughly 815K BTC over the last month, which thins the bid and leaves some juicy air pockets below.

You can feel the magnet at $98–100K—there’s about $1.3B in long leverage camped near $98K, practically begging for a sweep. And that $102–100K shelf everyone loves? We’ve knocked on it four times since May ’25. Every knock makes it softer.

Positioning isn’t helping. On Binance, longs still dominate (about 69%), which is great—until it isn’t. If we lose the shelf, that imbalance is fuel for a quick flush into the liquidity. That’s the path of least resistance.

What flips the script? Reclaim $108K with a clean retest that holds, then go after $112K—that’s where I start trusting upside again.

Until then, my base case is simple: we either get the $98K rinse (fast stab, faster reclaim), or we keep crabbing and let the market force the issue. I’ll trade confirmation, not hope.

Degen Playbook*

If we sweep $98K:

• Look for capitulation wicks + long liquidations → fast reclaim of $100–101K on H4/D1.

• Confirmation: reclaim holds while OI stabilizes and funding cools. Targets: $104–108K, stretch $112K.

If $100–102K breaks and can’t reclaim:

• Skip the knife. Let the sweep print. No retest/hold = no trade (or keep risk tiny and stops hard).

If $108K reclaims first:

• Expect chasey candles. Prefer the retest of $108K that sticks before sizing toward $112K.

Trap alarms:

• Breaks on thin volume + positive funding + rising OI into resistance = bull trap risk.

• Weekend/after-hours pops without spot follow-through are fade-prone.

Risk rules:

• Always define invalidation before entry.

• One timeframe to signal; one timeframe to confirm (e.g., H1 trigger, H4 confirmation).

• Size like you’ll be wrong first.

_{* Not Financial Advice}