Intro

Hey Degens,

If you’re an early-stage founder, this cycle probably feels like a cosmic joke:

• Headlines: “Revolut raises $1B.” “Kraken pulls in $800M ahead of IPO.”

• Your inbox: “Hey, great deck. Unfortunately we’re focused on later-stage opportunities at this time.”

November’s VC data basically confirms the vibe:

• Deal counts near yearly lows.

• Funding totals propped up by a few mega-raises.

• Most of the actual checks went to CeFi, DeFi, RWA and AI-adjacent infra, not random “new L1 for dogs.”

And yet… on the adoption side:

• WisdomTree just took a sophisticated options income strategy and put it onchain.

• French banking giant BPCE is about to let millions of normies buy BTC/ETH/SOL/USDC in their banking app.

• Coinbase Institutional is openly calling for a December recovery, pointing at global liquidity and Fed cut odds.

So no, the game isn’t over.
It just got a lot more selective.

Let’s break down what’s actually happening.

TL;DR

• Crypto VC funding is muted: November saw only 57 disclosed deals, one of the weakest tallies this year, even as big rounds like Revolut’s $1B and Kraken’s $800M dominated the headlines.

• Capital is clustering around CeFi, DeFi, NFT-GameFi, RWA and AI–Web3 infra, with examples like Ostium ($24M onchain perps for RWA), Axis ($5M onchain yield across BTC/gold/USD), and PoobahAI ($2M for no-code tokenized networks + AI agents).

• VCs are doing fewer deals in tougher conditions — which historically is where some of the best vintage returns come from, as Sarah Austin notes.

• Meanwhile, TradFi keeps creeping onchain: WisdomTree launched an onchain Equity Premium Income Digital Fund tracking a put-write index, now running a suite of 15 tokenized funds including a digital government money market fund with >$730M in assets.

• BPCE, France’s 2nd-largest banking group, is rolling out in-app trading for BTC, ETH, SOL and USDC to ~2M customers to start, with a plan to reach ~12M retail users by 2026.

• Coinbase Institutional is calling for a December recovery in BTC and crypto, citing rising global M2, a ~92% probability of a Fed rate cut as of Dec 4, and improving liquidity as macro tailwinds.

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Main Event
VC Winter, Adoption Summer

Let’s start with the uncomfortable bit: VCs aren’t writing as many checks.

1️⃣ Fewer deals, bigger cheques, higher bar

Data from RootData and others:

• Only 57 disclosed crypto rounds in November 2025, down sharply from prior months and way below bull-market frenzies.

• Total dollar funding looks okay on paper only because of a few mega-events (e.g., Revolut’s $1B, Kraken’s $800M + earlier big acquisitions).

• Most of the action is now around established companies and later-stage plays, not seed-stage experiments.

Galaxy and others have highlighted that:

• The long-term correlation between BTC price and VC flows has broken down — price recovered faster than VC confidence.

Sarah Austin (Titled) puts it bluntly: backing fewer early-stage projects in tough markets hurts the whole ecosystem, because historically the best deals are made in bad conditions, not near the top.

This is the VC winter:
Not “no money,” just selective money.

2️⃣ Where the money is going

Look at the three highlighted deals in November’s VC roundup:

• Ostium – $24M

  • Onchain perpetuals protocol, but focused on real-world markets: stocks, commodities, indices, FX.

  • Backers include General Catalyst, Jump, SIG and angels from Bridgewater, Two Sigma, Brevan Howard.

  • Translation: RWA + perps + serious quants.

• Axis – $5M

  • Onchain yield infrastructure giving exposure to BTC, gold and USD.

  • Led by Galaxy Ventures, with OKX Ventures, Maven 11, CMS and FalconX in the mix.

  • Already stress-testing with $100M of private capital through their beta. This is very “we’re building rails for real size,” not a degen farm.

• PoobahAI – $2M seed

  • No-code platform to spin up tokenized Web3 networks + AI agents.

  • Led by FourTwoAlpha (early ETH / Cosmos investor).

  • Perfect Venn diagram: AI x Web3 x infra.

The pattern:

Capital is clustering in infrastructure that touches real-world rails, AI, and yield — not random “number go up” tokens.

3️⃣ At the same time, the rails are getting very real

While early-stage founders fight for scraps, TradFi is quietly doing this:

WisdomTree: tokenized options income

• They launched the WisdomTree Equity Premium Income Digital Fund (EPXC) — a tokenized fund tied to a US large cap put-write options index.

• This isn’t just “we put a stock on a chain.” It’s a complex options overlay strategy, onchain, with a digital share class alongside traditional vehicles.

• WisdomTree now runs ~15 tokenized funds on platforms like WisdomTree Prime and Connect, including a tokenized government money market fund with $730M+ in AUM.

This is what “tokenization” was supposed to mean before everyone got distracted by JPEGs.

BPCE: 12 million French retail users getting a big orange “Buy BTC” button

• BPCE (Banque Populaire + Caisse d’Épargne group), one of France’s biggest banking giants, is rolling out in-app crypto trading.

• Phase 1: ~2 million customers across a few regional banks will be able to buy/sell BTC, ETH, SOL, USDC inside the existing app via a dedicated digital asset account.

• Plan: gradually expand to all ~12 million retail clients by 2026 if performance/UX check out.

Remember when you needed a shady offshore exchange, a burner email and a PDF of your passport to buy $200 of BTC?

Now French normies are going to do it between checking their mortgage and paying the electricity bill.

4️⃣ Coinbase: “Santa rally is on the table”

On the market side, Coinbase Institutional is basically telling clients:

Their core thesis:

• Global M2 liquidity is ticking up again.

• As of Dec 4, traders are assigning ~92% odds to a Fed rate cut — plus expectations of the end of quantitative tightening.

• Those macro tailwinds historically support risk assets (equities + crypto).

• They called for October weakness earlier this year based on money supply, and are now expecting a December reversal / recovery.

Layer that on top of everything above and the picture looks like:

• Cheap money is creeping back in.

• Adoption rails (banks, tokenized funds) are coming online.

• VC is not dead, it’s just done funding every random L2 and dog coin.

Degen Toolbox: How to Use VC Data Without Copium

Most CT “VC talk” is just vibes, but you can actually use this stuff:

1️⃣ Track deal count, not just total dollars

• A month with $10B in funding across 10 deals is worse for you than
  $2B across 300 deals, if you’re early-stage or investing in innovation.

• Right now we’re clearly in a “few big checks, many passed decks” regime.

For builders:
Assume your category needs to be obvious (RWA rails, real yield, infra, AI-adjacent) to get VC attention. Everything else? Build lean, revenue-first.

For investors:
Low deal counts + selective capital often produce the best vintages later — if you’re willing to back weird stuff before it’s obvious.

2️⃣ Follow where the rails are going

When you see:

• Tokenized government money markets with hundreds of millions in AUM.

• Major banks doing in-app crypto for millions of normies.

You’re not early on “crypto exists.”
You are early on:

• Which protocols these rails plug into,

• Which assets become “default” holdings,

• Which infra becomes boring but indispensable.

That’s where long-term upside lives.

3️⃣ Hedge narratives with macro

Coinbase’s call is a good reminder:

• Liquidity and policy (M2, Fed cuts, QT) still matter, even in a “mature” crypto cycle.

• Even if you’re a chain-maxi, your PnL is downstream of dollar flows and rates more than you want to admit.

So:

• Have a “macro-lite” dashboard: M2, Fed probabilities, key inflation prints.

• Use it not to trade CPI candles, but to frame why flows are dry or hot