Weekend Pop or Dead Cat?

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Hey Degens,

We got the classic “Sunday pump” to $111K, but the vibe is… cautious.

Whales sold into strength, key levels still aren’t flipped, and traders keep glancing at that $100K fib zone.

Let’s unpack the move and then hit the biggest stories you might’ve missed.

TL;DR

• BTC hit $111K, but weekend pumps have trust issues.

• Whales selling into strength keeps resistance heavy at $111.2K–$112K.

• Key reclaim = $112K; otherwise the market can revisit $105K → $100K fib land.

• Stories to watch: Bybit’s Japan pause (reg), Flutterwave/Polygon (real payments), MEXC apology (trust), 70% drawdown thesis (risk), stablecoin UX sprawl (friction).

• Trade like an adult: Wait for higher-timeframe closes + retests. Don’t let Sunday write your Monday.

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Main Event — BTC’s Sunday sprint, trust issues remain

• The move: BTC poked up to $111,129 (new November high) thanks to fresh bids on Binance/Coinbase. Nice.

• The mood: “Cool rally, don’t trust it.” That’s basically trader consensus. We’ve been here before—weekend pops that fade once TradFi opens.

• Whale watch: A known whale has been distributing ~$650M since the October smackdown. That supply is a wet blanket.

• Levels that matter:

  • 21-week EMA ≈ $111,230 — acting as a ceiling. Reclaiming it would be a legit win.

  • $112K–$113K — flip this into support or the rally’s just cardio.

  • Fib “worst case” zone ≈ $100K — market’s favorite boogeyman. Historically where BTC has bottomed on 38.2% pullbacks.

My read: Fun bounce, still range-bound. If bulls don’t reclaim $111.2K → $112K on a daily close, the “Sunday pump” likely unravels. If they do, we’ve got room to run into the mid-$113Ks before the next boss fight.

Deeper Cuts — 5 stories that matter

1. Bybit pauses new signups in Japan
   They’re hitting pause to line up with evolving FSA rules. Existing users are fine (for now). Translation: compliance over growth, and that’s the theme for big exchanges in 2025.

2. Flutterwave × Polygon: stablecoin rails for Africa
   A cross-border stablecoin payments network over 34 countries. If they nail UX, this is real throughput for on-chain fiat rails.

3. MEXC says “we messed up,” unfreezes $3M
   After months of heat from trader White Whale, MEXC apologized publicly and released funds. Centralized exchanges working their PR + risk levers in public—take notes.

4. The cycle guy: “70% drawdown returns”
   Sigma Capital’s Vineet Budki says the 4-year boom/bust still lives. Not because BTC “fails,” but because people buy what they don’t understand—and panic first. Uncomfortable… and not crazy.

5. ZachXBT: stablecoin “ticker fatigue” is real
   Too many tickers, standards, bridges, gas tokens. Result: fragmented liquidity and user errors. Until this cleans up, “stablecoin as cash” remains a UX project, not just a tech one.

Mini Hot Takes

• “Sunday pump” rules still apply: If we don’t get the follow-through on Monday/Tues, assume unwind risk.

• Whale distribution > vibes: Until those outflows chill, rallies are guilty until proven innocent.

• Africa rails are the sleeper narrative: If Flutterwave delivers, stablecoin settlement becomes utility, not just yield.

• Exchange mea culpas are bullish-ish: Not for price, but for trust. We need more of that.

• Cycles die hard: You don’t have to believe in a 70% nuke to respect risk bands like an adult.

Levels & Triggers (my napkin plan)

• Reclaim + hold: $111.2K (21w EMA) → $112K on a daily close = momentum permission.

• Fail + fade: Lose $109K again? Eyes to $105–$102K, with $100K the “max pain fib” magnet.

• Invalidation for bulls: Multiple rejections at $112–113K with renewed whale outflows = don’t force longs.

• Invalidation for bears: Clean reclaim of $112K with rising spot bid and shrinking distribution = stop fading strength.

That’s a wrap. If we don’t reclaim $112K with conviction, I’m not marrying this pump. Stay nimble, manage risk, and don’t let Sunday write your Monday.

If this hits, forward it to one degen who needs a reality check. If it didn’t, reply and tell me why—I read everything.

— The DegenDen Team

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